Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 22.460229 24.418842 26.529995 28.984991 31.774310 34.860304 38.554047
2026-01-04 19.285778 21.940483 24.996283 28.813602 33.511429 39.180982 46.662589
2026-01-11 17.210806 20.295556 24.039553 29.005623 35.558339 44.120298 56.534217
2026-01-18 15.452495 18.740596 22.902726 28.701136 36.817780 48.193910 66.195956
2026-01-25 14.149645 17.567939 22.051674 28.570341 38.191132 52.583666 77.385941
2026-02-01 13.135928 16.640705 21.381923 28.540558 39.627610 57.264268 90.325226
2026-02-08 12.270038 15.812952 20.734892 28.417528 40.844092 61.773036 104.351115
2026-02-15 11.530415 15.084172 20.138101 28.265184 41.943918 66.256589 119.873382
2026-02-22 10.885293 14.429802 19.576576 28.078526 42.922307 70.686896 137.001468
2026-03-01 10.361561 13.906541 19.155909 28.053091 44.151523 75.840473 158.112493
2026-03-08 9.900901 13.439562 18.775036 28.037759 45.376297 81.251148 182.673572
2026-03-15 9.672276 13.302352 18.892009 28.875138 48.342696 91.194096 226.619252
2026-03-22 9.203072 12.775184 18.358777 28.537717 48.994721 96.186998 259.230191
2026-03-29 8.828864 12.373932 18.002340 28.486505 50.246537 103.093098 305.427211
2026-04-05 8.540769 12.090322 17.818578 28.735116 52.192932 112.505028 373.093516
2026-04-12 8.187389 11.680033 17.388480 28.464412 52.934749 118.867340 435.423206
2026-04-19 7.888844 11.341445 17.056856 28.350111 54.023683 126.703259 519.373441
2026-04-26 7.628224 11.050187 16.786478 28.328214 55.334674 135.806868 631.263586
2026-05-03 7.372685 10.753262 16.485020 28.210276 56.390391 144.558027 764.839156
2026-05-10 7.131050 10.467070 16.183614 28.061406 57.346099 153.446577 931.221320
2026-05-17 6.901197 10.189428 15.879937 27.877602 58.183483 162.360595 1138.984214
2026-05-24 6.707761 9.964723 15.659600 27.852906 59.461170 173.787112 1450.748813
2026-05-31 6.527680 9.754446 15.452925 27.837972 60.772665 186.186387 1888.519183